Do midterm redistricting efforts favor Republicans?

By Morgan Sweeney
The Center Square

The U.S. Supreme Court slapped down an appeal from Virginia Democrats Friday to uphold their redrawn map of congressional districts, preserving what appears to be a Republican advantage heading into midterm elections.

The high court did not include a reason along with its order.

With multiple states pursuing redistricting efforts to favor one party over the other, Republicans could stand to gain about a dozen seats come November.

A nationwide push

President Donald Trump has been pushing red states to redistrict in Republicans’ favor since reentering office, as the president’s party traditionally loses congressional seats during midterm elections. At least one chamber in Congress has flipped in eight of the last 10 midterm elections going back to 1986. Twice, both chambers flipped.

Robert Strong, an emeritus professor of politics at Washington and Lee University and a contributor to The Conversation, noted that all presidents “since Harry S. Truman, whose job approval was below 50% in the month before a midterm election, lost seats in the House.” Trump is well below that threshold, polling at about 36% according to several polls, including the latest from The Economist.

Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and the entire chamber is up for reelection in November.

Trump and others have said that Democrats have redistricted to their advantage in blue states, and so Republicans should use their majorities in red states to do the same.

Federal law requires that states redraw their congressional maps every 10 years following the national census, but they can redistrict more frequently if they choose to. More states have pursued mid-decade redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms — spurred both by Trump’s calls for favorable Republican maps and by Democratic countermeasures — than at any point since the 1800s, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

States with new maps

So far, California, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah have implemented redrawn congressional maps, resulting in 16 potential new seats for Republicans and six for Democrats. But with Trump’s approval rating so low, energy prices ao high, and the historic midterm advantage for the party not in power, will that result in Republicans maintaining the majority in Congress?

California passed Proposition 50 in November, hoping to gain five more Democratic seats among its 52 representatives in the House. Utah only has four seats total, all of which are currently held by Republicans, but redistricting efforts there aim to gain one Democrat in November.

Texas and Florida represent the biggest gains for Republicans, should the party hold all of its other seats in the states, with their redrawn maps potentially yielding nine new seats in districts redrawn to favor Republicans. Cumulatively, the maps for Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee have been redrawn to favor five more Republican districts.

And after several court rulings clearing the way for other efforts, Alabama and Louisiana will likely follow, adding two more potential seats for Republicans. South Carolina kicked off a special session Friday, mandated by the governor via executive order, where state lawmakers will decide if they will pursue a new map for November or lay the matter to rest for now. The state is currently represented by six Republicans and one Democrat in the House; a new map would potentially convert all the state’s districts to Republican-leaning.

Failed or stalled efforts

A number of blue states, like Colorado, Illinois, New York and Washington, have decided they will not pursue redistricting for 2026 but may pursue it for 2028. Georgia has done the same, as voting is already underway there.

Virginia turned out to be a disappointment for Democrats, whose referendum for a constitutional amendment to redraw the state’s congressional map passed 52% to 48%. The language of the amendment echoed California’s, which said the new maps would only be in effect until the 2030 census to “restore fairness” in the upcoming elections.

The Virginia Supreme Court nullified the referendum, saying it did not meet constitutional requirements, and the Supreme Court denied Democrats’ request for an appeal on Friday.

Virginia is currently represented by six Democrats and five Republicans in the House. The new map would have redrawn districts into 10 potential Democratic districts and one Republican.