ACA premiums projected to rise 26% in 2026, far above U.S. inflation

By Tom Joyce
The Center Square

Affordable Care Act health insurance premiums are expected to rise about 26% in 2026, the biggest increase in eight years and much higher than overall U.S. inflation.

New industry data show ACA plans, also known as Obamacare, will see the largest cost spike of any major sector in the economy as Congress weighs the next round of federal healthcare funding.

Kaiser Family Foundation data show the 26% increase is roughly nine times the national inflation rate of around 3% based on 2025 year-to-date consumer price numbers. Analysts say the jump raises new questions about how much taxpayers should continue paying insurers through ACA subsidies and other federal programs.

Premium increases are not limited to the individual market, but the ACA jump is the biggest by far. Forbes projects employer-sponsored health insurance premiums will increase by about 6.5% next year. Additionally, small business health plans will rise by about 11% in 2026, a report from OneDigital says.

Other healthcare costs are increasing at a much slower pace. Data from the American Hospital Association shows hospital care costs rising around 4% in 2025. Meanwhile, prescription drug prices are increasing by about the same amount this year, Pharmaceutical-Technology.com reports. Those numbers are significantly lower than the ACA premium spike.

The Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on Wednesday on rising health costs. Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, scheduled the session to review healthcare inflation and the growing share of federal spending tied to insurer reimbursements.

Some lawmakers have focused on reimbursement practices they say encourage insurers to bill the government for higher amounts. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-Louisiana, has filed the No Upcode Act, which would limit the ability of insurers to increase payments by adjusting codes. Cassidy’s office says the proposal would save an estimated $124 billion over 10 years.

Small business advocates say the latest numbers show that the ACA structure continues to push premiums higher rather than lowering costs for employers and workers.

“It is clear that the ACA’s policy of paying health insurance companies has not lowered health insurance costs for Americans, but quite the opposite,” Karen Harned, small business expert and former executive director at the National Federation of Independent Business, said. “Insurance premiums are going up for everyone, especially small businesses who have little margin to afford this.”