By Madeline Shannon
The Center Square

As the federal government shutdown becomes America’s longest one on its 37th day, many are worried health care is going to become too expensive to afford, according to California lawmakers.

“People are scared. The biggest thing that I hear is fear and trepidation about what the future is going to hold for them,” Assemblymember Dawn Addis, D-San Luis Obispo, and chair of the Budget Subcommittee on Health, told The Center Square. “There’s a lot of fear where people are starting to think about if they’re going to need a second or third job. Are they going to have to cut back on other basic needs?”

Much of that worry is centered on expiring health insurance subsidies, Addis said.

According to the Covered California website, federally-subsidized Enhanced Premium Tax Credits kept health care premiums low enough to be affordable for almost 2 million Californians who get insurance through Covered California. Those tax credits expire at the end of the year because President Donald Trump’s House Resolution 1, or the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, did not include an extension.

Health insurance payments will go up after the subsidies expire on Jan. 1, 2026. For some, premiums will go up 97%, according to a Covered California fact sheet. Those premiums will price individuals and families out of their health insurance and result in a difficult choice between paying for food or paying for health care, state officials have said.

“Increasing out-of-pocket health care costs puts coverage out of reach for millions of Californians and others across the nation,” said California Health and Human Services Secretary Kim Johnson, in an Oct. 2 news release issued from Newsom’s office. “This threatens affordability and will force many individuals and families to lose their health coverage altogether. Without federal action, the health of our communities is at risk.”

Over 1.5 million Californians who make less than $62,000 a year will see their health insurance premiums rise from $97 to $182 on average, according to Covered California. Older adults in the state will see a rise in their monthly premiums from $186 to $365. And $2.5 billion in savings will be lost for Covered California members if the tax credits aren’t extended.

However, according to a June 24, 2024 letter written by the Congressional Budget Office and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, extending the tax credit would increase the national budget deficit by $335 billion between 2025 and 2034.

“That deficit amount reflects an estimated $415 billion increase in the cost of the premium tax credit — the result of a $250 billion increase in outlays and a $164 billion decrease in revenues,” the report read.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has entered the fray over the expiring subsidies, issuing a news release on Oct. 2 blaming Trump and Congressional Republicans for the government shutdown.

“California has led the nation in expanding access to affordable health care, but Donald Trump is ripping it away,” Newsom said. “His Big Beautiful Betrayal gutted critical health care programs, and unless Republicans agree, nearly 2 million Californians will be hit with unaffordable bill hikes — and hundreds of thousands could lose coverage altogether.”

Assemblymember Mia Bonta, D-Oakland and chair of the Assembly Committee on Health, said in an email to The Center Square, “The government is shut down because Trump and Congressional Republicans are refusing to back down from their plan to raise health insurance costs and take coverage away from millions.”

Health care subsidies have been helping millions of Americans save money on insurance premiums for the last five years, according to HealthInsurance.org, an independent health insurance guide. With the expiration of those subsidies, the ability to save money will disappear for those who make over 400% of the federal poverty level. Enrollees over 50 are also going to see their premiums go up, particularly in states like West Virginia, Wyoming, Vermont, Connecticut or Alaska, HealthInsurance.org said.

Democrats have tried to push an extension of those subsidies. Republicans, however, have pushed back on congressional Democrats’ efforts to extend the subsidies. Republican say the debate about extending the health care subsidies can wait until after Congress passes a funding package that will keep the federal government open through the end of the year.

So far, the Senate has failed during 14 votes to advance a continuing resolution that would end the shutdown. The Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-seat majority, needs the support of seven Democrats to meet the 60-vote rule to pass the resolution. Democrats say they will support the resolution only if the subsidies are extended.

“We’ve got to be able to provide Covered California in a way that’s affordable,” Addis said. “We want to have those subsidies back. We absolutely need those subsidies back for the health of every American.”

She noted the continuing government shutdown also results in more anxiety for those who rely on programs like Covered California.

Multiple state government agencies in California that deal with health care did not return calls or emails from The Center Square on Wednesday.